Biography
Prof. Paolo F. Ricci
Prof. Paolo F. Ricci
University of Bologna, Ravenna Campus, Italy
Title: Integrating Incertitude and Group Judgments in Science-policy for Low-exposure Adverse Outcomes
Abstract: 
Causal models of multifactorial diseases such as cancer from low levels of exposures are essential correctly to inform stakeholders about how much reducing exposure decreases the burden of those disease and at what cost. Those models link heterogeneous and conflicting evidence of events from sites of action at cellular and other levels (e.g., genes, proteins, cells, tissues, and organs) to outcomes in individuals (clinical) or groups of individuals (epidemiological). The evidence consists of physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms that may be known, partially understood, or assumed, thus generating knowledge that ranges from theoretical to conjectural, with statistically insignificant and significant causal associations. Because causal models are eventually used by a public agency to set guidelines or standards, that choice should transparently balance assumptions, theories, data, analysis, corrections to those analyses, and results. Expert group agreement is used to resolve conflicts and enhance the legitimacy of public choices. The process consists of: scientific assumptions®causal modeling®results®aggregate experts’ opinion®informing science-policy. It is formal, otherwise standards and guidelines emanating from its use may be arbitrary or even legally indefensible. We discuss how aggregating heterogeneous information and knowledge requires combining alternative numerical information. Causation should account for: i) alternative forms of uncertainty (i.e., incertitude) correctly to represent the semantic meaning of vague modifiers (e.g., fuzzy or possibilistic) beyond the confines of probability measures, ii) propagation and fusion of uncertain (i.e., probabilistic) and fuzzy knowledge through probabilistic and fuzzy causal networks; and iv) aggregating competing individual expert opinions through group decision-making methods. Expert group decision-making informs policy by voting and ranking on the elements of the process. However, these can result in paradoxes and impossibilities. We exemplify this eventuality through the discursive dilemma and other paradoxes. We conclude that: i) several different measures of incertitude, averaging, combination rules, and network models must be integrated and used in developing low-dose causation; ii) formal rules for judging aggregate scientific evidence should be based on aspects of ranking and voting to reach defensible aggregate expert opinions.
Biography: 
Dr. Ricci has led and conducted analyses and experimental work, for approximately 30 years, in the USA, Canada, Italy, Australia, France, Vietnam, China, and the European Union. For example, he has worked on: probabilistic decision models applied to environmental and energy choices, technological diffusion and innovation, probabilistic causation, linear and non-linear applied statistical models, deterministic and probabilistic systems analysis, as well as at the intersection between science and law via causal analysis. He also has studied the human health risks from nuclear and non-nuclear energy technologies, from the cradle to the grave, cancer and other toxic effects from exposure to airborne and waterborne contaminants and microbiological agents. He has written more than 200 papers, published 5 books, and has testified in the US Congress on waste management Bills. 

Dr. Ricci has been the Head of the Technology Clearinghouse of the IEA/OECD (full diplomatic status). Most of this work has been published in major journals and books with hundreds of scientific and legal citations to his published work. In the last four years, he has served as a peer reviewer of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) activities regarding the human health risks from past nuclear and thermonuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site, and in the reviews of other DOE activities at their facilities, including Hanford nuclear reactor sites. Dr. Ricci has also been an external peer reviewer of research for several international universities and has appeared on Channel 9 (Australia) television (Sunday Show), on environmental health policy.
 
Dr. Ricci has been Associate Professor at Stanford University and at UCLA (School of Public Health), as well as Adjunct Full Professor of Law at UC Berkeley. From 1994 to 2000, he was Associate Professor (equivalent to US Professor) of Public Health and Head of the Risk Analysis Unit (NSW Department of Health, Sydney), as well as Professor (equivalent to US Professor with Chair) at the University of Wollongong (Faculty of Law), Australia; he has also been Faculty Scholar at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.  Dr. Ricci is an Honorary Professor, University of Queensland, NRCET, Brisbane, Australia; Adjunct Professor School of Public Health, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA. He also is Research Professor at the University of San Francisco, Professor of Decision Analysis at Holy Names University, Oakland, and Guest professor at Xiamen University, China.