| Biography | |
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 Prof. Moumtaz Razack University of Poitiers IC2MP, France |
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| Title: Simulation of climate scenariosup to 2100 and analysis of groundwater resilience. Application to the management of a coastal aquifer under arid context in the Republic of Djibouti, Horn of Africa. | |
| Abstract: The Republic of Djibouti (RDD), with an area of 23200km², is located in the Horn of Africa. This territory is characterized by an arid climate and is among the countries most affected by water resources problem. Water needs for municipalities, agriculture and livestock supply, however, are constantly increasing, given the economic and social development of the country. The average annual rainfall is 150 mm and the temperature varies from 20 to 45 °C. There are virtually no permanent streams. In this context, groundwater is the only resource available to meet all needs (drinking water, livestock, and agriculture). The RDD is affected by an important drought phenomenon, resulting in a rainfall deficit, which in particular implies a reduction in the recharge of aquifers. Drought is linked to climate change on a global scale. In RDD, climatological stations reveal a trend of inter-annual average precipitation to decrease. Over the period 1960 to 1990, this reduction was estimated at between 6% and 15%. In such a very constraining context, including an increase in water demand, drought and a decrease in the recharge of aquifers (which represent the only available water resource), arises the crucial problem of the sustainability of water resources. The objective of this work is to establish climate scenarios up to 2100 based on general circulation models (GCMs) that integrate changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations into the atmosphere. These climate scenarios are then used in aquifer simulations to analyze the impact of these climate scenarios on the sustainability of groundwater resources. This approach is applied to the Obock coastal aquifer, which in addition is subjected to seawater intrusion. The resources of this groundwater are currently used to supply drinking water to the town of Obock. However, as an important development of this region of the RDD is envisaged in the coming years, this work made it possible to evaluate the available groundwater resource and to forecast its evolution under the impact of climate change until 2100. Keywords: Climate change, groundwater resilience, coastal aquifer, numerical modeling, SEAWAT software, Djibouti. | |
